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    Content Assessment: Port Support? Ukraine Conflict Assessments in Maps (July 19 - 23, 2022)

    Information - 92%
    Insight - 90%
    Relevance - 90%
    Objectivity - 93%
    Authority - 92%

    91%

    Excellent

    A short percentage-based assessment of the qualitative benefit of the post highlighting the recent Ukraine conflict assessments in maps from the Institute for the Study of War.

    Editor’s Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Ukraine crisis is the Ukraine Conflict Update from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a daily synthesis of key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ISW updates may benefit cybersecurity, information governance, and legal discovery professionals as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from the current Ukraine conflict.


    Assessment and Maps*

    Ukraine Conflict Assessments – An Overview in Maps

    General Assessment Background Info 

    • ISW systematically publishes Russian campaign assessments that include maps highlighting the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine and main Russian maneuver axes.
    • These maps augment daily synthetic products that cover key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

    The Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments

    • July 23, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events.

    Key Takeaways:

    • Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch, or have already launched, a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.
    • Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev is the acting commander of the Southern Military District.
    • Russian forces conducted limited reconnaissance operations east of Bakhmut and continued limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut.
    • The Kremlin continued to form regional volunteer battalions and likely intends to have 16 such battalions formed by the end of July.
    • Russian occupation authorities are continuing to prepare for referenda on the annexation of occupied areas into the Russian Federation and are taking measures to isolate occupied areas from the non-Russian information space.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 22, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keeping track of Western weapons on July 22.

    Key Takeaways

    • The United States announced an additional $270 million security package for Ukraine.
    • Ukrainian officials reiterated that they are employing monitoring mechanisms to track and account for the delivery of Western weapons to Ukrainian frontlines.
    • Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance northwest of Donetsk City.
    • Ukrainian forces conducted limited positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces conducted localized ground attacks near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
    • Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov announced that the newly-formed Chechen “West-Akhmat” battalion will not be immediately deployed into Ukraine and will stay in Chechnya.
    • Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin signed a cooperation agreement with the occupation head of Kharkiv Oblast, indicating that the Kremlin intends to integrate Kharkiv Oblast into the Russian Federation.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 21, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 21 that Russian troops have used up to 55-60% of Russia’s pre-war reserve of high-precision missiles.

    Key Takeaways

    • The current Russian operational tempo is not markedly different from the pace of Russian offensive operations during the official Russian operational pause, and Russian forces are unlikely to be able to take significant ground in the coming weeks.
    • Russia has likely used as much as 55-60% of its high-precision weaponry reserve.
    • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to the east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Kherson Oblast.
    • Russian forces may be storing equipment in Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant facilities to protect it against Ukrainian strikes.
    • Russia’s Murmansk Oblast is reportedly forming a volunteer battalion.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 20, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov articulated expanded geographical aims for Russian operations in Ukraine on July 20, confirming ISW’s long-held assessment that Russia has territorial goals beyond Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

    Key Takeaways

    • The current Russian offensive will likely make marginal territorial gains northeast of the E40 highway in Donetsk before culminating along the E40.
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is pursuing expanded territorial gains in Ukraine beyond Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast, confirming ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin seeks to capture territory beyond Donbas.
    • Russian forces resumed limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and around the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area.
    • Russian forces continued localized ground assaults east of Siversk and made marginal gains northeast of Bakhmut.
    • Ukrainian forces conducted the second consecutive high-precision strike against the Antonivskyi Bridge– a major Russian logistics artery east of Kherson City.
    • Russian occupation authorities are likely propagandizing recent Ukrainian high-precision strikes and partisan activity to set conditions for mass deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 19, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, George Barros, Katherine Lawlor, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Calls among Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war reached a crescendo on July 19.

    Key Takeaways

    • Calls made by Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for the Kremlin to officially define operations in Ukraine as a war, conduct general mobilization, and pursue expanded territorial goals reached a crescendo on July 19 with some criticizing the Kremlin and others claiming that Putin has been preparing for the “Syrianization” of the war all along.
    • The Kremlin will likely attempt to illegally annex occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts into Russia as early as September 11, 2022.
    • Russian milbloggers highlighted the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) failure to fight as they had trained—a critique that helps explain the general Russian failures during the initial invasion of Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continued efforts to resume offensive operations toward Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and around Barvinkove.
    • Russian forces continued ground attacks to the east of Siversk and had partial success in ground attacks to the east of Bakhmut.
    • Russian authorities are continuing to leverage unconventional sources of combat power to avoid general mobilization.
    • Russian occupation authorities are escalating law enforcement measures to protect administrative control of occupied areas.

    Read the complete update.


    We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


    Chronology of Maps from July 19-23 2022 – Mouseover to Scroll

    Ukraine Conflict Maps - 071922-072322

    See the Institute for the Study of War Interactive Map of the Russian Invasion
    Read the latest Ukraine Conflict updates from the Institute for the Study of War 

    * Shared with direct express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).


    About the Institute for the Study of War Research Methodology

    ISW’s research methodology relies on both primary and secondary sources, enabling researchers to develop a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must wholly understand the systems of enemy and friendly forces. They must also understand the population demographics, physical terrain, politics, and history of that area. This lays the analytical foundation for understanding the reasons for particular developments and fulfilling their assigned research objectives. ISW analysts also spend time in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in order to gain a better understanding of the security and political situation and to evaluate the implementation of current strategies and policies. Our researchers compile data and analyze trends, producing a granular analysis of developments in areas of research, producing an accurate, high-resolution, timely, and thorough picture of the situation. ISW’s research methodology guarantees its success and commitment to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations, achieve strategic objectives, and respond to emerging problems that may require the use of American military power.

    About the Institute for the Study of War

    The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.

    Learn more, get involved, and contribute today.


    Additional Reading

    Source: ComplexDiscovery

     

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