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    Crypto-Mobilization? Ukraine Conflict Assessments in Maps (June 28 – July 3, 2022)

    Information - 91%
    Insight - 90%
    Relevance - 88%
    Objectivity - 92%
    Authority - 93%

    91%

    Excellent

    A short percentage-based assessment of the qualitative benefit of the post highlighting the recent Ukraine conflict assessments in maps from the Institute for the Study of War.

    Editor’s Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Ukraine crisis is the Ukraine Conflict Update from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a daily synthesis of key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ISW updates may benefit cybersecurity, information governance, and legal discovery professionals as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from the current Ukraine conflict.


    Assessment and Maps*

    Ukraine Conflict Assessments – An Overview in Maps

    General Assessment Background Info 

    • ISW systematically publishes Russian campaign assessments that include maps highlighting the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine and main Russian maneuver axes.
    • These maps augment daily synthetic products that cover key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

    The Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments

    • July 3, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk.

    Key Takeaways:

    • Russian forces seized the remaining territory between Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast’s administrative borders on July 3.
    • Russian forces launched assaults northeast of Bakhmut and north of Slovyansk but did not secure new territorial gains.
    • Russian forces conducted extensive artillery attacks in the western part of the Southern Axis likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.
    • The Kremlin continued to set conditions for potential Russian annexation of proxy republics.
    • Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 2, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros

    Key Development

    • Ukrainian forces likely conducted a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk, resulting in the Russian seizure of the city on July 2.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city on July 2.
    • Russian forces are conducting offensive operations southwest of Lysychansk likely to push westward towards Siversk and complete the capture of the entirety of Luhansk Oblast.
    • Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk.
    • Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City but did not make any confirmed gains.
    • Ukrainian troops are likely planning to threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) throughout Kharkiv Oblast using Western-supplied weapons.
    • Ukrainian counterattacks and partisan activity continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the Southern Axis.
    • Proxy leadership may be setting conditions for the direct annexation of proxy republics by the Russian Federation.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 1, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros

    Key Development

    • The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Lysychansk and conducted offensive operations to the south and southwest of the city.
    • Russian forces have likely not yet reached the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on the ground but are denying Ukrainian forces use of it by continuing artillery and airstrikes against remaining Ukrainian positions along the road.
    • Russian forces focused on regrouping and improving their tactical positions north of Slovyansk.
    • Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued shelling Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes along the Southern Axis.
    • Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the pool of recruits available to fight in Ukraine.

    Read the complete update.


    • June 30, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and Grace Mappes

    Key Development

    • Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense Ministry spun the retreat as “a step of goodwill.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian troops made limited gains within the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and around Lysychansk.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut and to the north of Slovyansk.
    • Russian forces continued efforts to regain control of settlements north of Kharkiv City.
    • Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to force Russian troops on the Southern Axis to prioritize defensive operations.
    • Russian occupation authorities took measures to ensure further economic and financial integration of occupied areas into the Russian system.

    Read the complete update.


    • June 29, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Grace Mappes

    Key Development

    • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 28 that the Kremlin is setting conditions to annex areas of Kherson and Zaporizhia into the Russian Federation under the template of the pre-1917 “Tavriia Gubernia.”

    Key Takeaways

    • Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and that Russian authorities are setting conditions for annexation through preparing referenda in occupied areas.
    • Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Lysychansk.
    • Russian forces made marginal gains east of Bakhmut along the E40 highway and may seek to prepare for a direct offensive on Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
    • Russian forces are continuing to engage in offensive operations north of Kharkiv City, indicating that the Kremlin has territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas that will continue to attrit manpower and equipment, potentially at the cost of offensive power on more critical axes of advance.
    • Russian forces continued to reinforce their defensive presence along the Southern Axis.

    Read the complete update.


    • June 28, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Mason Clark, and Grace Mappes

    Key Development

    • Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal that may include pulling back from Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast in the near future and which probably aims to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces continued to launch assault operations south and southwest of Lysychansk. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) officials claimed that Ukrainian forces had begun to withdraw from the city, but ISW cannot confirm these claims.
    • Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and conducted spoiling attacks on settlements west of Izyum, likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.
    • Russian forces failed to advance along the Kharkiv City-Belgorod highway and continued to undertake measures to hinder Ukrainian advances towards the international border or Izyum.
    • Ukrainian forces continued to launch counteroffensives north of Kherson City and reportedly liberated two settlements.
    • Russian forces continued to transfer military equipment and personnel east of Melitopol.
    • Russian occupation authorities are maintaining unsuccessful efforts to introduce ruble salary payments and set conditions to inflate electoral numbers in a future referendum.

    Read the complete update.


    We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


    Chronology of Maps from June 28 – July 3 2022 – Mouseover to Scroll

    Ukraine Conflict Maps - 062822-070322

    See the Institute for the Study of War Interactive Map of the Russian Invasion
    Read the latest Ukraine Conflict updates from the Institute for the Study of War 

    * Shared with direct express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).


    About the Institute for the Study of War Research Methodology

    ISW’s research methodology relies on both primary and secondary sources, enabling researchers to develop a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must wholly understand the systems of enemy and friendly forces. They must also understand the population demographics, physical terrain, politics, and history of that area. This lays the analytical foundation for understanding the reasons for particular developments and fulfilling their assigned research objectives. ISW analysts also spend time in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in order to gain a better understanding of the security and political situation and to evaluate the implementation of current strategies and policies. Our researchers compile data and analyze trends, producing a granular analysis of developments in areas of research, producing an accurate, high-resolution, timely, and thorough picture of the situation. ISW’s research methodology guarantees its success and commitment to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations, achieve strategic objectives, and respond to emerging problems that may require the use of American military power.

    About the Institute for the Study of War

    The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.

    Learn more, get involved, and contribute today.


    Additional Reading

    Source: ComplexDiscovery

     

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