Escalating Tensions and Strategic Shifts: An Overview of Key Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (November 22, 2023)

Source Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Ukraine crisis is the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a daily synthesis of key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ISW updates may benefit investigators and litigators as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

 For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.

Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Update*

Escalating Tensions and Strategic Shifts: An Overview of Key Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ComplexDiscovery Staff

Russian President Vladimir Putin has notably shifted the Kremlin’s stance on the Israeli-Hamas conflict, adopting a more anti-Israel position. On November 22, he criticized Western responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drawing parallels with the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution and the situation in Palestine. This change in rhetoric marks a departure from earlier Kremlin statements focusing on peace and the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Western military aid to Ukraine. Putin’s comments indicate a potential alignment with Iranian interests in the region and a willingness to confront Israel, suggesting strategic recalibrations aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine.

Simultaneously, Putin maintained his narrative of Russia’s openness to negotiations in Ukraine, a stance consistently contradicted by the Kremlin’s actions and objectives, including territorial claims and regime change aspirations. This rhetoric seems designed to coerce Western officials into premature concessions, despite Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate only upon Russian withdrawal from its territory.

The US National Security Council reported Iran’s supply of glide bombs to Russia, with potential plans to transfer short-range ballistic missiles, signifying deepening Iran-Russia military cooperation. This collaboration, evident in the increased use of glide bombs by Russian forces, aligns with Iran’s domestic production of various glide bombs and its support of Russia with drones and artillery ammunition.

In the domestic Russian sphere, there’s an unexplained concern about the March 2024 presidential elections, despite high approval ratings for Putin. This anxiety is reflected in the government’s intensified censorship and efforts to discredit potential election criticisms. The Kremlin is also addressing dissatisfaction among relatives of mobilized personnel and the veteran community, indicating internal pressures and a need to bolster Putin’s image.

A significant development involves Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin’s call for codifying a state ideology in Russia’s constitution, a move that would mark a stark departure from current protections for civil rights and democratic pluralism. This initiative, aligning with ultranationalist sentiments, could reshape Russia’s constitutional framework, emphasizing ethnic Russian identity and traditional values. However, the Kremlin has not indicated a willingness to abandon the existing constitutional veneer of legitimacy.

Externally, the European Union proposed a plan to bolster security commitments to Ukraine, encompassing military aid, training, defense industrial cooperation, and support in various areas, including cyber defense and energy transition. This proposal reflects the EU’s ongoing prioritization of Ukraine amidst the conflict.

Russian forces continued their offensive operations, with missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on November 21-22, despite Ukraine’s effective defensive responses. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers have expressed increasing dissatisfaction with the military command, highlighting poor strategic decisions and operational security lapses. This discontent among the ultranationalist community reflects broader challenges in the Russian military’s conduct of the war.

The current situation underscores a complex interplay of strategic recalibrations, domestic political concerns, and evolving international alliances, all set against the backdrop of persistent military engagements in Ukraine. These developments point to a dynamic and multifaceted conflict landscape, with significant implications for regional and global geopolitics.

Additional Information

• Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
• Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Detailed Reporting with Maps for November 22, 2023, from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll

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• [Annual Update] International Cyber Law in Practice: Interactive Toolkit
• Data Embassies: Sovereignty, Security, and Continuity for Nation-States

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Source: ComplexDiscovery