Editor’s Note: This report, based on the Institute for the Study of War’s July 4, 2025, update, details a dramatic intensification of the Russo-Ukrainian War, as Russian forces launched the largest combined drone and missile strike of the full-scale invasion to date. The coordinated assault involved over 500 aerial threats—targeting multiple regions but striking Kyiv City with particular intensity—causing civilian injuries and damaging foreign diplomatic sites. The ISW assessment emphasizes that this escalation reflects Russia’s growing reliance on long-range strike capabilities to erode Ukraine’s defensive infrastructure and undermine societal and international resolve. U.S.-supplied Patriot systems remain indispensable in intercepting such attacks and protecting Ukraine’s defense industrial assets.
The July 4 update also underscores the Kremlin’s continued commitment to maximalist war aims, as seen in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s disingenuous references to diplomacy following a call with U.S. President Donald Trump. In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used his own call with Trump to push for expanded air defense cooperation and defense industrial partnerships. On the frontlines, ISW notes limited Russian advances in Sumy and near Chasiv Yar, and Ukrainian gains in the Kupyansk sector. Meanwhile, ongoing prisoner exchanges offer rare humanitarian relief amid sustained combat. This moment raises a critical question: will intensified Russian strikes and intransigence force a decisive shift in Western strategic posture—or deepen an already entrenched war of attrition?
For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.
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Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Update*
Devastation from the Skies: Russia Launches Largest Combined Aerial Assault of the War
ComplexDiscovery Staff
In a sharp escalation emblematic of Russia’s deepening reliance on long-range psychological warfare, the night of July 3–4, 2025, witnessed the most intense combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began. With 330 Shahed drones, 209 decoys, and at least 11 ballistic and cruise missiles launched, the Kremlin orchestrated a massive assault primarily targeting Kyiv City. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the interception or suppression of 476 aerial threats, but the remaining strikes wounded over 20 civilians and damaged key urban infrastructure, including foreign diplomatic buildings.
This unprecedented barrage was widely interpreted as a demonstration of Moscow’s unwillingness to entertain genuine diplomatic resolution, directly following a phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin. In that conversation, President Trump acknowledged a complete lack of progress, stating candidly that Putin is “not there” and “not looking to stop” military actions against Ukraine. Despite Russian claims of openness to diplomacy, ISW assesses these statements as continuations of long-standing maximalist demands: regime change in Kyiv, Ukrainian demilitarization, and establishment of a Russian-aligned proxy state.
As this strategic air offensive unfolded, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump also held discussions focused on expanding joint air defense capabilities, reinforcing the critical role of US Patriot systems. These weapons have become vital in Ukraine’s attempt to shield its defense industrial base (DIB) and major cities from Russia’s long-range aerial threats. The leaders also touched on defense industrial collaboration, emphasizing joint projects on drone technologies and mutual procurement initiatives.
On the battlefield, fighting remains intense along the northern and eastern fronts. Russian forces gained ground in northern Sumy Oblast, with geolocated evidence confirming their seizure of Novomykolaivka. New Russian BARS-Sarmat robotic infantry systems, leveraging electronic warfare capabilities, have been deployed to mitigate Ukrainian drone strikes. Clashes continued around Kindrativka and Myropillya as Russia pushes closer to Sumy City.
To the east, Ukrainian forces made modest progress near Kupyansk, advancing east of Kolisnykivka. Meanwhile, Russian forces pressed toward Milove, aiming to expand a “buffer zone” along the Belgorod border. Despite claims of seizure, Ukrainian officials could not confirm the capture of Milove, and the strategic intent appears linked to Kremlin efforts to fortify its northern defenses.
Further south in Donetsk Oblast, fierce urban fighting engulfed Chasiv Yar, where geolocated footage shows Russian advances within the Refractory Plant complex. Additional unconfirmed reports suggest Russian troops may have seized Predtechyne. Russian airstrikes using KAB glide bombs and logistical buildup in the sector suggest growing momentum toward an expanded offensive in this zone.
Equally heavy combat continued in surrounding directions. In Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, Russian attacks persisted without major advances. However, geolocated evidence confirms Russian troops seized Vesele and advanced north of Shevchenko. Ukrainian forces have responded with localized counterattacks, attempting to slow Russian momentum across these fragmented but strategically significant axes.
Cross-border activity remains volatile. Ukrainian forces struck a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast, killing Russian Navy Deputy Commander Major General Mikhail Gudkov. Additionally, a significant strike targeted a Russian defense enterprise in Sergiyev Posad, a facility linked to Shahed drone component production. These strikes exemplify Kyiv’s persistent efforts to degrade Russian military infrastructure beyond the immediate frontlines.
Amidst the carnage, a glimmer of humanitarian reprieve surfaced with the eighth prisoner-of-war exchange since the June 2 Istanbul accords. Severely wounded, young, and civilian captives were exchanged in parity, many having been held since the early phases of Russia’s invasion in 2022. While the quantity was not disclosed, the symbolic continuity of such exchanges serves as a reminder that channels of minimal dialogue remain open, even as full-scale diplomacy languishes.
Ultimately, July 4, 2025, marks a pivotal escalation in both the aerial and psychological dimensions of the war. Russia’s largest aerial strike to date underscores its continued resolve to force concessions not through negotiation, but through destruction. Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s resilience—fueled by Western support and defensive innovation—remains firm. Yet with the lines hardening and diplomacy failing, one must ask: at what point might the cost of continued attrition drive a shift in strategy by either side—or will this war of endurance simply deepen further into a protracted stalemate?
Detailed Reporting with Maps for July 4, 2025, from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll
Russo-Ukrainian War - July 4 2025-UpdateReview the Detailed Reporting and Maps PDF
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Source: ComplexDiscovery OÜ