The Approaching Winter Looms Large over Brutal Battle for Ukraine’s Future (October 2 – 8, 2023)

Editor’s Note: Over the last week, the Institute for the Study of War highlighted the ongoing attritional struggle between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Both sides vied for minor gains in eastern and southern Ukraine amid localized attacks and counterattacks. Near Bakhmut, Ukraine pressed ahead as Russia rotated depleted units and reinforced defenses. In western Zaporizhia, Ukraine’s counteroffensive also made incremental progress while Russia sought to retake lost ground.

Diplomatically, Putin reiterated familiar propaganda at the Valdai Conference and aimed to limit war discussion during his almost certain reelection campaign. Meanwhile, the EU prepared to start accession talks with Ukraine in December. Militarily, the fighting remained intense as Russia struck civilian infrastructure while reportedly embedding penal battalions for costly counterstrikes. Ukraine continued offensives despite poor weather, intent on exploiting winter conditions. Russia relocated some Black Sea Fleet vessels away from Ukrainian strikes on Crimea and tightened border controls against infiltration.

Propaganda wars persisted, with Russia exploiting events in Israel to fracture Western support for Ukraine. Interethnic tensions rose regarding claims of Chechen forces’ superiority. The Kremlin’s odd statements blaming deceased Wagner financier Prigozhin for his own death generated unintended praise for him among pro-war Russians. Speculation continued about Wagner’s uncertain future under mysterious Kremlin control.

Russia’s military reorientation focused forces toward NATO’s eastern flank while newly deployed units struggled near Kupyansk. Partisans persistently targeted occupation officials in the south. Overall, the grinding war’s costs stayed high for both sides with minimal progress. Momentum has slowed since Ukraine’s major gains this summer. For now, the dispiriting attritional struggle favors Russia’s advantage in resources, but Ukraine retains the strategic initiative. Much uncertainty looms ahead in the winter months of this arduous conflict.

Source Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Ukraine crisis is the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a daily synthesis of key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ISW updates may benefit investigators and litigators as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

 For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.

Assessments and Maps*

Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Assessments

• Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia Team
• Critical Threats Project (CTP), American Enterprise Institute

General Assessment Background Info 

• ISW systematically publishes Russian campaign assessments, including maps highlighting the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine and main Russian maneuver axes.
• Maps augment daily synthetic products that cover key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments

Overall Summary

The Institute for the Study of War provided key insights into developments in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War from October 2 – 8, 2023. Over the past week, the daily assessments detailed the key events and developments, noting that across eastern and southern Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive and counteroffensive operations for marginal gains of territory.

On Sunday, October 8, the Institute for the Study of War reported Russia is reforming its military command structure by re-establishing the Leningrad Military District, likely positioning forces to confront NATO and Finland. Ukraine continues localized offensive gains near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia, though Russia attempts to slow momentum by fixing Ukrainian troops elsewhere. Ukraine is bracing for an intensified Russian drone attack campaign this winter, replacing Soviet air defenses. Satellite imagery shows dramatically increased rail traffic from North Korea to Russia after Putin’s trip to Pyongyang, possibly carrying military equipment and supplies. Meanwhile, friction persists between regular Russian forces and irregular DNR units over integration, complicating Russia’s efforts to consolidate control in occupied Donbas.

On Saturday, October 7, the ISW assessed that Russia is exploiting events in Israel to advance information operations intended to fracture Western support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine persists with localized offensive gains near Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia despite Russian missile strikes on rear infrastructure. Russia is tightening border controls, likely concerned over infiltration from Ukraine. Divisions remain among Russian pro-war communities. At the same time, Ukraine continues ground attacks in eastern and southern Ukraine while partisan activity targets Russian-installed officials in occupied territories.

On Friday, October 6, the ISW noted that Ukraine continues to press localized offensive gains near Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia while Russia rotates forces to sustain defenses near Orikhiv. Russia also continued attempts to renew offensives near Kupyansk despite deploying ineffective forces. The Kremlin’s denigration of Wagner’s Prigozhin spurred his praise in pro-war circles. Also, former Russian commanders remained in positions of influence after a poor performance in 2022. Meanwhile, Russia struck Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian kamikaze drones.

On Thursday, October 5, the main takeaways were that Putin is pushing familiar propaganda narratives and bizarrely blaming Prigozhin for his own death. Meanwhile, Ukraine continued localized offensive gains near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia. Russia is also moving forces to reinforce Kherson’s direction. Devastating Russian strikes continued against Ukrainian civilians while Russia built up training and mobilization efforts. Finally, Russia appears to be planning a permanent but small naval base in Abkhazia.

On Wednesday, October 4, it was reported that Russia was moving some Black Sea Fleet vessels from Sevastopol to rear areas to protect them from Ukrainian strikes. Ukraine persisted with localized offensive gains near Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia as autumn weather slowed operations. Russia increased repression by censoring mobilized soldiers’ families. It has also been reported that the US will send seized Iranian weapons to Ukraine while speculation continues about former commander Surovikin’s role after the Wagner rebellion. Additionally, the EU is reportedly preparing to start accession talks with Ukraine in December.

On Tuesday, October 3, Russia’s Defense Minister oddly singled out select forces operating in western Zaporizhia for praise, potentially rewarding their relentless counterattacking in the face of Ukrainian advances. Meanwhile, the Kremlin continued supporting controversial Chechen units in Ukraine despite recent interethnic tensions. Putin apparently sought to limit discussion of the war during his imminent reelection campaign announcement, concerned about public opinion. According to Reuters, Russia was embedding penal battalions within conventional units to conduct costly counterstrikes against Ukrainian gains. Ukraine persisted with localized offensives near Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia even as Russia struck rear areas. Armenia’s move to join the International Criminal Court earned denunciation from the Kremlin.

On Monday, October 2, a Russian commander portrayed a Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) leader as protecting degraded units from relentless attacks near Bakhmut, similar to claims about VDV forces in Zaporizhia. A Russian “Storm Z” instructor speculated poor performance got a general removed from command near Bakhmut. Ukraine continued offensives and made marginal gains near Bakhmut and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Speculation persisted on Wagner’s unclear future under Rosgvardia amid an ill-defined Kremlin relationship. Controversy continued over claims of Chechens’ superiority, sparking ethnic tensions. Drone strikes against Ukraine decreased after a record number hit Ukrainian infrastructure last month.

Over the past week, Russia and Ukraine continued vying for marginal battlefield gains as the war remained largely static. Diplomatically, Ukraine pursued further integration with Western institutions amidst persistent Russian propaganda and repression. However, the risks of escalation and uncertainty ahead remain high.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Detailed Reporting with Maps for October 2 – 8, 2023, from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll

Review the Detailed Reporting and Maps PDF

See the Institute for the Study of War Interactive Map of the Russian Invasion
Read the latest Ukraine Conflict updates from the Institute for the Study of War 

* Shared with direct express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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Additional Reading

• From Dissent to OSINT? Understanding, Influencing, and Protecting Roles, Reputation, and Revenue
• [Annual Update] International Cyber Law in Practice: Interactive Toolkit
• Data Embassies: Sovereignty, Security, and Continuity for Nation-States

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Source: ComplexDiscovery