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You are viewing ARCHIVED CONTENT released online between 1 April 2010 and 24 August 2018 or content that has been selectively archived and is no longer active. Content in this archive is NOT UPDATED, and links may not function.Content Assessment: Hamas Holds Firm as Iran Ratchets Up Regional Tensions in Israel War (October 17-24, 2023)
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A short assessment of the qualitative benefit of the recent update on Iran and Iranian-sponsored activities manifesting in an Israel-Hamas War prepared by ComplexDiscovery from reporting and maps sourced from Institute of the Study of War.
Editor’s Note: The Institute for the Study of War provides invaluable insights into Iranian activities and dynamics through its regular Iran Update briefings. Published in coordination with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, these updates offer in-depth analysis of Iranian-sponsored activities across the Middle East and beyond. Recently CTP and ISW have refocused updates to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
For ongoing coverage of Iranian activities across the Middle East and the current Israel-Hamas War, the Institute for the Study of War also provides maps charting influence, activities, and outbreaks across the region. These maps present vital information about Iranian proxies and allies. They also show how Tehran projects power to pursue its strategic goals. The Iran Updates and supporting maps offer vital resources to track Iran’s destabilizing actions and manifestations, such as the Israel-Hamas War.
Today’s Iranian Update coverage by ComplexDiscovery OÜ spans October 17-24, 2023, with coverage spurred by the unprecedented attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023. This dangerous regional escalation with international implications will continue to be covered by ComplexDiscovery OÜ in addition to its regular reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Source Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Middle East crisis is the Iran Update from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a regular synthesis of key events related to Iranian activities in the region, ISW updates may benefit investigators and litigators as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from Iran’s destabilizing actions across the Middle East and the current hostilities in the Isreal-Hamas War.
For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.
Assessments and Maps*
Middle Eastern Conflict Assessments
- Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
- Critical Threats Project (CTP), American Enterprise Institute
General Assessment Background Info
- ISW systematically publishes Iran Updates, including maps highlighting key events and activities.
- Maps augment regular synthetic products that cover key events related to potential Iran-sponsored activities across the Middle East.
Iran Update Summary (October 17-24, 2023)
This report summarizes key events and developments in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war from October 17-24, 2023 based on daily updates from the Institute for the Study of War. The analysis highlights Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities aimed at escalating the conflict across the Middle East through proxies.
Clashes in West Bank Decline as Hezbollah Steps Up Northern Border Attacks
On October 17, Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel, attacking civilian and military targets. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low after peaking on October 13. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza. CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets. LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech. Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel.
Iran Depicts Gaza Hospital Bombing as Prelude to Broader Conflict
On October 18, Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel from the Gaza Strip, targeting 21 IDF military positions with mortars and rockets in Southern Israel. The rate of clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank expanded by 470 percent. CTP-ISW recorded 20 Attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which is double the number of attacks recorded on October 17. Two Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted separate attacks on US forces stationed at the al Harir airbase and Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq established the al Aqsa Joint Operations Room in support of Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation. Iranian officials and media are blaming the United States and Israel for the explosion at the al Ahli hospital in the Gaza Strip and warning about the potential expansion of the conflict as a result.
Iraq Militias Copy Hezbollah Targeting US to Deter Israel Support
On October 19, Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias targeted 12 IDF military positions with indirect fire and ATGM in southern Israel. An Israeli journalist indicated that Hamas is also trying to attack natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank may increase on October 20. Hamas called for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across all cities and towns in the West Bank then, as part of Hamas’ effort to expand fighting against Israel to the West Bank. CTP-ISW recorded 13 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which is creating opportunities for further attacks into Israel. LH is allowing Palestinian militias to continue attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militants in Syria conducted three attacks using one-way drones and rockets against US military positions in Iraq and Syria, marking the second consecutive day of such attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East.
Hamas Makes Conciliatory Gesture While Iran Proxies Keep Up Assaults
On October 20, Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Hamas also released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests on October 18. The Israel-Hamas War may be driving Palestinian militia coordination in the West Bank. Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East.
Warnings of Possible Escalation Along Lebanese Border Emerge
On October 21, Palestinian militias continued indirect fire at their usual rate into Israel. These attacks and those throughout the war underscore the reality that the IDF is facing a loose coalition of several Palestinian militias rather than just Hamas. Palestinian militants and Israeli forces continued to clash in the West Bank. Palestinian militants have increasingly used IEDs against Israeli forces since October 18. Iranian-backed militants, including LH, conducted 11 attacks as part of its ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets, especially tanks. This campaign creates opportunities for further LH attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation. Israeli and LH officials and media suggested that fighting could intensify around the Israel-Lebanon border in the coming days, especially if the IDF conducts ground operations into the Gaza Strip. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted two separate one-way drone attacks on US positions in Iraq, marking the fourth consecutive day of attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East.
Iran Reportedly Approves Limited Hezbollah Border Attacks on Israel
On October 22, Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias targeted the Israel Defense Forces in these attacks, likely preparing to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 17 attacks targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. These attacks are part of an effort to keep Israeli forces busy per Western and Israeli reports. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18, which are part of an Iranian-led effort to deter US support for Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Alwiya Waad al Haq threatened to attack US forces in Kuwait and the UAE. Iran is setting conditions to blame the US and Israel for further escalation, ignoring that Iran already expanded the war by directing proxies to attack US and Israeli targets.
Iran Sets Conditions to Fault US and Israel for Further Escalation
On October 23, Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel while IDF airstrikes targeted Palestinian militant groups affiliated with Hamas in Gaza. Militants in southern Lebanon and Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. The IDF also intercepted two drones traveling from Lebanese territory north of Haifa. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—may have expanded the locations of its attacks against US forces in Syria.
Hamas Threatens Hostages While Iran Deflects Responsibility
On October 24, Palestinian militias in Gaza continued attacks into Israel at their usual rate. Hamas and allies are preparing to blame Israel if Gaza hostages are killed, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Iranian-backed militants like Lebanese Hezbollah conducted attacks targeting IDF radar and military sites, consistent with reports they aim to keep Israeli forces busy. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18 to deter US support for Israel. Iran is setting conditions to blame the US and Israel for further escalation, ignoring Iran’s role in expanding the war by directing proxies to attack US and Israeli targets across the region.
Throughout the October 17-24 timeframe, Iran systematically operated to expand the Israel-Hamas war across the Middle East through militant partners like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias. Hamas adopted some conciliatory actions but maintained pressure from Gaza. Meanwhile, Iran rejected accountability for intentionally broadening the conflict.
For complete reporting, visit the Institute for the Study of War.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because those activities do not directly affect the military operations being assessed and forecast. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of reported criminal activities. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions.
Detailed Reports with Selected Maps from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll
Iran Update October 17-24, 2023Review the Reports and Maps – PDF
* Shared with express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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