|
|
ARCHIVED CONTENT
You are viewing ARCHIVED CONTENT released online between 1 April 2010 and 24 August 2018 or content that has been selectively archived and is no longer active. Content in this archive is NOT UPDATED, and links may not function.Content Assessment: Hamas Offensive in Israel Sparks Fears of Regional Conflagration (October 7-9, 2023)
Information
Insight
Relevance
Objectivity
Authority
Excellent
A short assessment of the qualitative benefit of the recent update on Iran and Iranian-sponsored activities as prepared by ComplexDiscovery from reporting and maps sourced from Institute of the Study of War.
Editor’s Note: The Institute for the Study of War provides invaluable insights into Iranian activities and dynamics through its regular Iran Update briefings. Published in coordination with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, these updates offer in-depth analysis of Iranian-sponsored activities across the Middle East and beyond.
The Iran Updates help explain how Tehran undermines regional stability and threatens US interests and forces. It covers key events and trends shaping the calculations and stability of the Iranian regime itself. The updates combine extensive research with expert perspectives on Iranian objectives and tactics.
With tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and a potential crisis erupting between Israel and Palestinian militant groups, the Iran Updates offer essential reading, helping connect the dots on Iranian saber-rattling, deployments, and proxy operations. The analysis probes Tehran’s capabilities, intentions, and decision-making.
For ongoing coverage of Iranian activities across the Middle East, the Institute for the Study of War also provides maps charting Iranian influence across the region. These maps present vital information about Iranian proxies and allies. It also shows how Tehran projects power to pursue its strategic goals. Both the Iran Updates and supporting maps offer vital resources to track Iran’s destabilizing actions. They provide early warning signs about Tehran’s military moves and objectives.
Today’s initiation of Iranian Update coverage by ComplexDiscovery OÜ begins with the tensions that erupted on October 7, 2023, with an unprecedented attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel, a dangerous regional escalation with international implications. This coverage augments the regular ComplexDiscovery OÜ reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian War since its inception.
Source Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Middle East crisis is the Iran Update from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a regular synthesis of key events related to Iranian activities in the region, ISW updates may benefit investigators and litigators as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from Iran’s destabilizing actions across the Middle East.
For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.
Assessments and Maps*
Middle Eastern Conflict Assessments
- Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
- Critical Threats Project (CTP), American Enterprise Institute
General Assessment Background Info
- ISW systematically publishes Iran Updates, including maps highlighting key events and activities.
- Maps augment regular synthetic products that cover key events related to potential Iran-sponsored activities across the Middle East.
Iran Update Summary (October 7-9, 2023)
Hamas Launches Major Attack on Israel, Sparking Fears of Wider Conflict
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian militant group Hamas initiated a large-scale attack on Israel on Saturday, including hundreds of fighters crossing from Gaza into Israeli territory, rocket attacks, and raids on military sites and towns. The unprecedented ground and air assault marked the most serious escalation between Israel and Hamas in decades, according to military analysts.
Hundreds of Israeli civilians have been killed or injured so far, according to health officials. Israel has vowed to respond decisively to what it described as an “act of war,” with expectations it will conduct a ground operation into Gaza to rout Hamas.
However, Hamas initiated the attack despite its military inferiority compared to Israel’s defense forces. This has raised questions about the motivation behind Hamas’ actions.
Military analysts have suggested several non-mutually exclusive possibilities:
Hamas may expect the conflict to expand and involve other Palestinian militias, Iran, and Iran’s network of regional proxies known as the “Axis of Resistance.” This coalition is well-positioned to intervene against Israel. The timing on the anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war suggests Hamas may be hoping to ignite a multi-front conflict.
The attack mirrors thinking by Iranian military leaders about defeating Israel through ground operations and urban warfare to sow internal chaos. Images of Hamas atrocities against Israeli civilians posted online align with this approach.
Hamas may have sought to disrupt U.S.-led Israel-Saudi normalization talks. The crisis has already complicated these negotiations between the longtime adversaries.
There are also concerns Iran could exploit Israel’s distraction from the Gaza conflict for military advances or nuclear progress in the region. Analysts caution against narrowly focusing on Gaza, as this Hamas attack could be part of Iran’s broader regional strategy. They warn the U.S. and allies must remain vigilant about Iranian exploitation of the crisis.
Palestinian Militias Expand Attacks in Israel, Raising Risk of Wider Conflict
On October 8, 2023, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Palestinian militias have expanded their attacks in Israel in support of the major ground offensive launched by Hamas over the weekend. This escalation has raised concerns of the conflict expanding to a multi-front war.
Following Hamas’ incursion from Gaza into southern Israel on Saturday, other Palestinian militant groups have joined the fight against Israeli security forces. Clashes were reported in towns in southern Israel between Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades and Israeli forces.
The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Palestinian Islamic Jihad also conducted attacks in Israel, with Islamic Jihad rotating fighters to relieve Hamas. Analysts say this coordination shows planning for a sustained campaign.
Meanwhile, attacks were reported from Lebanese Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border, and unspecified Palestinian militants hit Israeli positions in the occupied West Bank.
Analysts say the operations across multiple fronts align with recent warnings from Israeli officials about the risk of a multi-front war orchestrated by Iran and its regional proxies.
Earlier this year, Israel’s defense minister cautioned the chances of simultaneous attacks from Iranian-backed groups had increased. The latest escalation lends credence to those concerns of a coordinated effort to embroil Israel in conflict on multiple borders.
The involvement of multiple Palestinian groups also aligns with recent thinking by Iranian military officials about defeating Israel through ground operations and urban warfare to destabilize the country internally.
As the crisis spreads beyond the initial Hamas incursion, the U.S. and regional allies will likely closely monitor for further attempts to expand the conflict by Iran and its partner militias across the Middle East.
Hamas Expands Attacks in Israel as Iran Redeploys Forces to Syria Border
On October 9, 2023, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the militant group Hamas expanded its ground offensive against Israel on Sunday, even as Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza in retaliation. Hamas fighters launched an attack on the Israeli town of Rahat, located about 30 km from Gaza.
The escalation came as other Palestinian militias conducted operations in the occupied West Bank, responding to calls to open a second front against Israel.
Meanwhile, rhetoric from Iran and its regional proxies has grown increasingly bellicose, raising fears the Gaza conflict could spiral into a wider regional war.
An unnamed Iranian official threatened missile strikes on Israel from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen if Israel attacks Iran. The head of an Iran-backed Iraqi militia also threatened attacks on US forces supporting Israel.
On the ground, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters deployed to Syria’s border with Israel. Analysts see the movements as consistent with Iranian plans for a multi-front war surrounding Israel.
Israel has mobilized reservists and conducted over 500 airstrikes in Gaza. The defense minister also imposed a blockade, leaving over 2 million Gazans without basic utilities.
While denying direct involvement in Hamas’ actions, Iran reiterated its support for Palestinian militant groups. Israel and the US have responded cautiously to accusations of Iranian coordination.
But the Iranian build-up along the Syrian border and the operations across multiple fronts have lent credibility to Israeli warnings this year about the risk of simultaneous attacks orchestrated by Tehran.
As the crisis expands, analysts say Iran may seek to exploit the instability to make progress on strategic objectives like developing its nuclear program or consolidating proxy footholds surrounding Israel.
For complete reporting, visit the Institute for the Study of War.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because those activities do not directly affect the military operations being assessed and forecast. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of reported criminal activities. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions.
Selected Maps from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll
Iran Update Battle Maps – October 9, 2023* Shared with express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
About the Institute for the Study of War Research Methodology
ISW’s research methodology relies on both primary and secondary sources, enabling researchers to develop a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must wholly understand the systems of enemy and friendly forces. They must also understand the population demographics, physical terrain, politics, and history of that area. This lays the analytical foundation for understanding the reasons for particular developments and fulfilling their assigned research objectives. ISW analysts also spend time in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in order to gain a better understanding of the security and political situation and to evaluate the implementation of current strategies and policies. Our researchers compile data and analyze trends, producing a granular analysis of developments in areas of research, producing an accurate, high-resolution, timely, and thorough picture of the situation. ISW’s research methodology guarantees its success and commitment to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations, achieve strategic objectives, and respond to emerging problems that may require the use of American military power.
About the Institute for the Study of War
The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.
Learn more, get involved, and contribute today.
Additional Reading
- From Dissent to OSINT? Understanding, Influencing, and Protecting Roles, Reputation, and Revenue
- [Annual Update] International Cyber Law in Practice: Interactive Toolkit
- Data Embassies: Sovereignty, Security, and Continuity for Nation-States
Assisted by GAI and LLM Technologies
Source: ComplexDiscovery
