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    Content Assessment: Volunteer Mobilization? Ukraine Conflict Assessments in Maps (July 9 - 13, 2022)

    Information - 91%
    Insight - 90%
    Relevance - 88%
    Objectivity - 89%
    Authority - 94%

    90%

    Excellent

    A short percentage-based assessment of the qualitative benefit of the post highlighting the recent Ukraine conflict assessments in maps from the Institute for the Study of War.

    Editor’s Note: One of the most accurate and detailed sources for ongoing updates on the Ukraine crisis is the Ukraine Conflict Update from the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a 501(c)(3) organization and produces strictly non-partisan, non-ideological, fact-based research. ISW seeks to promote an informed understanding of war and military affairs through comprehensive, independent, and accessible open-source research and analysis. ISW’s research is made available to the general public, military practitioners, policymakers, and media members. Providing a daily synthesis of key events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ISW updates may benefit cybersecurity, information governance, and legal discovery professionals as they follow the business, information technology, and legal trends and trajectories impacted by and stemming from the current Ukraine conflict.


    Assessment and Maps*

    Ukraine Conflict Assessments – An Overview in Maps

    General Assessment Background Info 

    • ISW systematically publishes Russian campaign assessments that include maps highlighting the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine and main Russian maneuver axes.
    • These maps augment daily synthetic products that cover key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

    The Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments

    • July 13, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia.

    Key Takeaways:

    • The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to deploy to Ukraine.
    • Russian forces conducted failed ground assaults north of Slovyansk and around Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and west of Donetsk City.
    • Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian rail lines on the Eastern Axis.
    • Russian forces attempted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces prioritized defensive operations on the Southern Axis as Ukrainian forces continued targeting ammunition depots.
    • Russian occupation authorities are increasing financial incentives for civilians working in occupied Ukraine.
    • Russian occupation authorities may be setting conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainian children in occupied territories to Crimea.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 12, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reported on July 11 that Iran will provide Russia with “up to several hundred UAVs” on an expedited timeline.

    Key Takeaways

    • The Kremlin is reportedly sourcing Iranian UAVs likely to improve Russian aerial reconnaissance and indirect fire accuracy in Ukraine.
    • Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
    • Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
    • Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces likely conducted a false-flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.
    • Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes killed multiple Russian officers in Kherson City on July 10.
    • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots on the Southern Axis.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 11, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to grant Russian forces access to Belarusian airspace to demonstrate at least nominal support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking direct military involvement of Belarusian Armed Forces in operations in Ukraine.

    Key Takeaways

    • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to allow Russia access to Belarusian airspace to indicate support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking the consequences of direct Belarusian military involvement in Ukraine.
    • Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk and west of Donetsk City.
    • Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City.
    • Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 10, 2022
    • By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Russian forces are in the midst of a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. This operational pause has been largely characterized by Russian troops regrouping to rest, refit, and reconstitute; heavy artillery fire in critical areas to set conditions for future ground advances; and limited probing attacks to identify Ukrainian weakness and structure appropriate tactical responses.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensives.
    • Russian forces conducted limited probing operations northwest of Slovyansk.
    • Russian forces are likely intensifying artillery and missile strikes west of Bakhmut in order to isolate the city from critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs).
    • Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful ground attack north of Donetsk City.
    • Russian military leadership continues to form ad hoc volunteer units and private military company combat organizations partly comprised of older men and criminals to support operations in Ukraine.

    Read the complete update.


    • July 9, 2022
    • By Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

    Key Development

    • Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating that the Kremlin likely intends to annex part or all of Kharkiv Oblast.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults northwest of Slovyansk and conducted offensive operations east of Siversk from the Lysychansk area.
    • Russian forces continued localized attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to defend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area.
    • Russian forces continue to face personnel and equipment shortages, relying on old armored personnel carriers and launching new recruitment campaigns.
    • Russian forces continued to set conditions for the annexation of Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, and southern Ukraine.

    Read the complete update.


    We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


    Chronology of Maps from July 9-13 2022 – Mouseover to Scroll

    Ukraine Conflict Maps - 070922-071322

    See the Institute for the Study of War Interactive Map of the Russian Invasion
    Read the latest Ukraine Conflict updates from the Institute for the Study of War 

    * Shared with direct express permission from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).


    About the Institute for the Study of War Research Methodology

    ISW’s research methodology relies on both primary and secondary sources, enabling researchers to develop a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must wholly understand the systems of enemy and friendly forces. They must also understand the population demographics, physical terrain, politics, and history of that area. This lays the analytical foundation for understanding the reasons for particular developments and fulfilling their assigned research objectives. ISW analysts also spend time in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in order to gain a better understanding of the security and political situation and to evaluate the implementation of current strategies and policies. Our researchers compile data and analyze trends, producing a granular analysis of developments in areas of research, producing an accurate, high-resolution, timely, and thorough picture of the situation. ISW’s research methodology guarantees its success and commitment to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations, achieve strategic objectives, and respond to emerging problems that may require the use of American military power.

    About the Institute for the Study of War

    The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.

    Learn more, get involved, and contribute today.


    Additional Reading

    Source: ComplexDiscovery

     

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