Editor’s Note: This report delivers a concise examination of Russia’s ongoing offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, set against the backdrop of an intensifying disinformation campaign orchestrated by the Kremlin. Despite President Vladimir Putin’s public assertions that Russian forces have successfully encircled a significant Ukrainian contingent in Kursk Oblast, these claims remain unsubstantiated by both Ukrainian officials and prominent Russian milbloggers. The Kremlin’s narrative—aimed at portraying Ukrainian forces as isolated and overwhelmed—serves a broader strategic objective: to erode Ukraine’s standing ahead of critical negotiations concerning a proposed US-brokered ceasefire. Concurrently, Moscow has escalated unproven allegations of Ukrainian war crimes in the region, resurrecting familiar tactics designed to polarize international opinion and justify further aggression. This report details the dissonance between battlefield realities and Kremlin rhetoric, underscoring how Russia is employing a hybrid approach of military pressure and information warfare to shape the contours of both the conflict and the diplomatic process.

For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.


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Background Note: ComplexDiscovery’s staff offers distinctive perspectives on the Russo-Ukrainian war and Middle Eastern conflicts, informed by military experience on the West German, East German, and Czechoslovakian border during the Cold War and in Sinai as part of Camp David Accord compliance activities. This firsthand regional knowledge has been further enhanced by recent staff travels to Eastern European countries, including Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. These visits have provided up-to-date, on-the-ground insights into the current geopolitical climate in regions directly impacted by the ongoing conflict.

Combined with cybersecurity, information governance, and eDiscovery proficiency, this multifaceted experience enables comprehensive analysis of these conflicts, including the critical impact of cyber warfare, disinformation, and digital forensics on modern military engagements. This unique background positions ComplexDiscovery to provide valuable insights for conflict-related investigations and litigation, where understanding the interplay of technology, data, and geopolitical factors is crucial.


Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Update*

Putin’s Narrative Offensive: False Encirclements and Fabricated War Crimes in Kursk

ComplexDiscovery Staff

In the latest chapter of Russia’s ongoing offensive against Ukraine, the Kremlin has intensified both its military operations and its information warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that Russian forces have successfully encircled a significant contingent of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast has been categorically denied by both Ukrainian officials and prominent Russian milbloggers. Maps circulated by Russian milbloggers as recently as March 15 illustrate active combat zones but fail to confirm any operational encirclement. Indeed, two notable Russian commentators have openly refuted Putin’s claims, describing them as part of a deliberate narrative aimed at influencing U.S. President Donald Trump and impeding forthcoming ceasefire negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has echoed these denials, affirming that while Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, they have thus far been unsuccessful. Independent Ukrainian sources have corroborated this, emphasizing that Ukrainian units maintain egress routes from their positions despite the complex tactical environment.

The military situation in Kursk Oblast remains highly dynamic. Russian forces have made incremental advances, particularly in western Basivka, near Sumy City. However, reports of Russian control over settlements such as Zaoleshenka, Rubanshchina, and Gogolevka are not yet substantiated by independent verification. Russian airborne and naval infantry units are reported to be engaged in offensive operations near Gogolevka and Guyevo, though Ukrainian positions remain resilient, particularly around Oleshnya and Gornal.

While Russian forces continue to push within Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian officials remain cautious about the possibility of a wider Russian offensive aimed at Sumy City. Zelensky has indicated that Russian troops are concentrating forces along the eastern border, potentially aiming to bring Sumy within artillery range. However, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, has downplayed the likelihood of a direct assault on the city itself, noting that Russian efforts appear more focused on sabotage and reconnaissance along the border.

Alongside kinetic operations, the Kremlin has launched a concerted disinformation campaign. In an effort to undermine Ukraine’s credibility and erode Western support, Putin and Russian state media have escalated accusations that Ukrainian forces committed war crimes during their prolonged presence in Kursk Oblast. Putin has insinuated that Ukraine’s military targeted civilians, referring to Ukrainian actions as acts of “terrorism.” These claims come at a strategic juncture, following the U.S.-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. The Russian Investigative Committee has launched criminal investigations against Ukrainian forces and has already convicted two Ukrainian soldiers for alleged offenses—verdicts widely criticized as politically motivated.

This pattern mirrors Kremlin tactics employed in 2021 and 2022, when Russia falsely accused Ukraine of genocide in Donbas as a pretext for its full-scale invasion. Presently, Russian ultranationalist voices and pro-Kremlin propagandists are amplifying claims of Ukrainian war crimes in Kursk Oblast to justify rejecting ceasefire talks and to rationalize the increasingly brutal treatment of Ukrainian forces. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes a disturbing trend of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war, including recent reports from Sudzha on March 13, likely under orders from senior Russian military command.

Concurrently, Russia continues its campaign of aerial bombardment across Ukraine. On the night of March 14 to 15, Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 178 Shahed drones in coordinated strikes targeting critical infrastructure across multiple oblasts, including Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Odesa. The strikes included another instance of Russia’s so-called “double-tap” tactics—successive attacks timed to target first responders—highlighted by the triple drone strike on Bohoduhiv, Kharkiv Oblast.

Despite the heightened tensions and Moscow’s attempts to derail peace efforts, Kyiv has maintained its focus on diplomatic engagement. On March 15, Zelensky announced the formation of a high-level delegation, led by Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak, to engage with international partners in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict.

While Ukrainian forces have secured minor gains near Toretsk and remain entrenched in contested zones such as Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, the frontlines remain fluid, with Russian troops simultaneously intensifying operations across northern and eastern Ukraine.

In light of these developments, the Kremlin’s fusion of military pressure with disinformation appears calculated to shift the strategic narrative and challenge Western resolve. As accusations of Ukrainian war crimes multiply in Russian media, one must ask: will these tactics achieve their intended aim of sowing discord among Ukraine’s Western allies, or will they merely reinforce international condemnation of Russia’s conduct in the conflict?

As a leading source for cybersecurity, information governance, and legal discovery insights, including international investigations and litigation, ComplexDiscovery OÜ recognizes the importance of awareness regarding alleged and documented criminal acts, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While we, following the lead of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), do not provide detailed coverage of war crimes in our primary reports, we encourage professionals within the eDiscovery ecosystem to stay informed about these activities. This awareness is crucial for understanding potential future legal actions and responsibilities.


Detailed Reporting with Maps for March 15, 2025, from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - March 15 2025

Review the Detailed Reporting and Maps PDF


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